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FIGURE 1—— Decision tree with 3 mutually exclusive categories of postnatal infections and deaths: HIV infections, non-AIDS deaths among uninfected breastfed infants, and non-AIDS deaths among uninfected nonbreastfed infants.

Note. The formula for infections or mortality in any category is obtained by multiplying the cells in that path of the tree (1. HIV infections = N x B x T; 2. Non-AIDS deaths among uninfected breastfed infants = N x B x (1 – T) x M; 3. Non-AIDS deaths among uninfected nonbreastfed infants = N x (1 – B) x M x R). The first interval (shown) begins with n = 880 (1000 live births – 120 infants infected during pregnancy and delivery). For each subsequent interval, N is the number of infants surviving HIV-free at the end of the preceding interval.