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The effect of postmenopausal estrogen therapy on the risk of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus.

L L Gabal, D Goodman-Gruen and E Barrett-Connor

Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla 92093-0607, USA.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the effect of postmenopausal estrogen replacement therapy on the incidence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes in women. METHODS: Postmenopausal women aged 50 through 70 years (n=848) without diagnosed diabetes at baseline were followed for 10 to 15 years for incident diabestes. RESULTS: Over the average 11.5 year follow-ip, there were 105 new cases of diabetes. The age-adjusted relative-risk for development of diabetes was nonsignificantly lower for women with continuous estrogen replacement therapy use than for never users. After adjustment for major covariates, a nonsignificant linear trend with increasing duration of estrogen replacement therapy was reversed. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that previous results showing a reduced risk of diabetes in women using estrogen may have been due to selection bias regarding who is prescribed estrogen, confounding factors, or differential diagnostic efforts.

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