Bringing context back into epidemiology: variables and fallacies in multilevel analysis.
A V Diez-Roux
Division of General Medicine, College of Physicians and Surgeons, School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, USA.
A large portion of current epidemiologic research is based onmethodologic individualism: the notion that the distributionof health and disease in populations can be explained exclusivelyin terms of the characteristics of individuals. The presentpaper discusses the need to include group- or macro-level variablesin epidemiologic studies, thus incorporating multiple levelsof determination in the study of health outcomes. These typesof analyses, which have been called contextual or multi-levelanalyses, challenge epidemiologists to develop theoretical modelsof disease causation that extend across levels and explain howgroup-level and individual-level variables interact in shapinghealth and disease. They also raise a series of methodologicalissues, including the need to select the appropriate contextualunit and contextual variables, to correctly specify the individual-levelmodel, and, in some cases, to account for residual correlationbetween individuals within contexts. Despite its complexities,multilevel analysis holds potential for reemphasizing the roleof macro-level variables in shaping health and disease in populations.
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