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American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 88, Issue 9 1337-1342, Copyright © 1998 by American Public Health Association

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Projections of Alzheimer's disease in the United States and the public health impact of delaying disease onset.

R Brookmeyer, S Gray and C Kawas

Department of Biostatistics, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 22105-2179, USA. rbrook@jhsph.edu

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to project the future prevalence and incidence of Alzheimer's disease in the United States and the potential impact of interventions to delay disease onset. METHODS: The numbers of individuals in the United States with Alzheimer's disease and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases that can be expected over the next 50 years were estimated from a model that used age-specific incidence rates summarized from several epidemiological studies, US mortality rates, and US Bureau of the Census projections. RESULTS: in 1997, the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease in the United States was 2.32 million (range: 1.09 to 4.58 million); of these individuals, 68% were female. It is projected that the prevalence will nearly quadruple in the next 50 years, by which time approximately 1 in 45 Americans will be afflicted with the disease. Currently, the annual number of new incident cases in 360,000. If interventions could delay onset of the disease by 2 years, after 50 years there would be nearly 2 million fewer cases than projected; if onset could be delayed by 1 year, there would be nearly 800,000 fewer prevalent cases. CONCLUSIONS: As the US population ages, Alzheimer's disease will become an enormous public health problem. interventions that could delay disease onset even modestly would have a major public health impact.




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L. E. Hebert, J. L. Bienias, D. A. Bennett, D. A. Evans, and P. A. Scherr
Year 2000 Prevalence of Alzheimer Disease in the United States--Reply
Arch Neurol, May 1, 2004; 61(5): 803 - 803.
[Full Text] [PDF]

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 Arch NeurolHome page
W. B. Grant
Year 2000 Prevalence of Alzheimer Disease in the United States
Arch Neurol, May 1, 2004; 61(5): 802 - 803.
[Full Text] [PDF]

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 CirculationHome page
A. M. Watanabe, R. W. Dollens, W. N. Malatestinic, and R. A. Browne
Is a Paradigm Shift in US Healthcare Reimbursement Inevitable?
Circulation, March 30, 2004; 109(12): 1456 - 1459.
[Full Text] [PDF]

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 BMJHome page
G. Logroscino, J. H. Kang, and F. Grodstein
Prospective study of type 2 diabetes and cognitive decline in women aged 70-81 years
BMJ, March 6, 2004; 328(7439): 548.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

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 Arch NeurolHome page
P. P. Zandi, J. C. Anthony, A. S. Khachaturian, S. V. Stone, D. Gustafson, J. T. Tschanz, M. C. Norton, K. A. Welsh-Bohmer, and J. C. S. Breitner
Reduced Risk of Alzheimer Disease in Users of Antioxidant Vitamin Supplements: The Cache County Study
Arch Neurol, January 1, 2004; 61(1): 82 - 88.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

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 The Annals of PharmacotherapyHome page
L. J Miller and R. Chacko
The Role of Cholesterol and Statins in Alzheimer's Disease
Ann. Pharmacother., January 1, 2004; 38(1): 91 - 98.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

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 Hum Mol GenetHome page
E. J.H. Lehman, L. S. Kulnane, Y. Gao, M. C. Petriello, K. M. Pimpis, L. Younkin, G. Dolios, R. Wang, S. G. Younkin, and B. T. Lamb
Genetic background regulates {beta}-amyloid precursor protein processing and {beta}-amyloid deposition in the mouse
Hum. Mol. Genet., November 15, 2003; 12(22): 2949 - 2956.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

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 Arch Intern MedHome page
J. L. Mitchell, K. J. Cruickshanks, B. E. K. Klein, M. Palta, and D. M. Nondahl
Postmenopausal Hormone Therapy and Its Association With Cognitive Impairment
Arch Intern Med, November 10, 2003; 163(20): 2485 - 2490.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

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 ScienceHome page
S. T. DeKosky and K. Marek
Looking Backward to Move Forward: Early Detection of Neurodegenerative Disorders
Science, October 31, 2003; 302(5646): 830 - 834.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

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 Mayo Clin Proc.Home page
D. S. Knopman, B. F. Boeve, and R. C. Petersen
Essentials of the Proper Diagnoses of Mild Cognitive Impairment, Dementia, and Major Subtypes of Dementia
Mayo Clin. Proc., October 1, 2003; 78(10): 1290 - 1308.
[Abstract] [PDF]

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 NEJMHome page
C. H. Kawas
Early Alzheimer's Disease
N. Engl. J. Med., September 11, 2003; 349(11): 1056 - 1063.
[Full Text] [PDF]

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 Arch NeurolHome page
L. E. Hebert, P. A. Scherr, J. L. Bienias, D. A. Bennett, and D. A. Evans
Alzheimer Disease in the US Population: Prevalence Estimates Using the 2000 Census
Arch Neurol, August 1, 2003; 60(8): 1119 - 1122.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

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 RadiologyHome page
P. M. McMahon, S. S. Araki, E. A. Sandberg, P. J. Neumann, and G. S. Gazelle
Cost-Effectiveness of PET in the Diagnosis of Alzheimer Disease
Radiology, August 1, 2003; 228(2): 515 - 522.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

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 ANN INTERN MEDHome page
M. Boustani, B. Peterson, L. Hanson, R. Harris, and K. N. Lohr
Screening for Dementia in Primary Care: A Summary of the Evidence for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force
Ann Intern Med, June 3, 2003; 138(11): 927 - 937.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

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 JAMAHome page
K. Yaffe
Hormone Therapy and the Brain: Deja Vu All Over Again?
JAMA, May 28, 2003; 289(20): 2717 - 2719.
[Full Text] [PDF]

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 The GerontologistHome page
B. S. Bloom, N. de Pouvourville, and W. L. Straus
Cost of Illness of Alzheimer's Disease: How Useful Are Current Estimates?
Gerontologist, April 1, 2003; 43(2): 158 - 164.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

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 J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med SciHome page
G. T. Grossberg and A. K. Desai
Management of Alzheimer's Disease
J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci, April 1, 2003; 58(4): M331 - M353.
[Full Text] [PDF]

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 JAMAHome page
K. J. Mukamal, L. H. Kuller, A. L. Fitzpatrick, W. T. Longstreth Jr, M. A. Mittleman, and D. S. Siscovick
Prospective Study of Alcohol Consumption and Risk of Dementia in Older Adults
JAMA, March 19, 2003; 289(11): 1405 - 1413.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]

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 AM J ALZHEIMERS DIS OTHER DEMENHome page
J. J. Cotter, J. Leon, A. J. Akers, and W. R. Smith
Special care for persons with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias in Virginia adult care residences
American Journal of Alzheimer's Disease and Other Dementias, March 1, 2003; 18(2): 105 - 113.
[Abstract] [PDF]


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