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November 2004, Vol 94, No. 11 | American Journal of Public Health 2004-2009
© 2004 American Public Health Association

RESEARCH AND PRACTICE

Effects of Macroeconomic Trends on Social Security Spending Due to Sickness and Disability

Jahangir Khan, MSc, Ulf-G. Gerdtham, PhD and Bjarne Jansson, Dr Med Sc, PhD

Jahangir Khan and Bjarne Jansson are with Division of Social Medicine, Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden. Ulf-G. Gerdtham is with the Department of Community Medicine, Malmö University Hospital, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden.

Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to Jahangir Khan, Karolinska Institutet, Department of Public Health Sciences, Division of Social Medicine, Norrbacka, 2nd floor, 171 76 Stockholm, Sweden (e-mail: jahangir.khan{at}phs.ki.se).

Objectives. We analyzed the relationship between macroeconomic conditions, measured as unemployment rate and social security spending, from 4 social security schemes and total spending due to sickness and disability.

Methods. We obtained aggregated panel data from 13 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development member countries for 1980–1996. We used regression analysis and fixed effect models to examine spending on sickness benefits, disability pensions, occupational-injury benefits, survivor’s pensions, and total spending.

Results. A decline in unemployment increased sickness benefits spending and reduced disability pension spending. These effects reversed direction after 4 years of unemployment. Inclusion of mortality rate as an additional variable in the analysis did not affect the findings.

Conclusions. Macroeconomic conditions influence some reimbursements from social security schemes but not total spending.






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