OPPORTUNITIES AND DEMANDS IN PUBLIC HEALTH SYSTEMS
System Dynamics Modeling for Public Health: Background and Opportunities
Jack B. Homer, PhD and
Gary B. Hirsch, SM
Jack Homer and Gary Hirsch are independent consultants specializing in the application of system dynamics methodology in both the public and the private spheres.
Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to Jack Homer, 3618 Avalon Court, Voorhees, NJ 08043 (e-mail: jhomer{at}comcast.net).
The systems modeling methodology of system dynamics is wellsuited to address the dynamic complexity that characterizesmany public health issues. The system dynamics approach involvesthe development of computer simulation models that portray processesof accumulation and feedback and that may be tested systematicallyto find effective policies for overcoming policy resistance.
System dynamics modeling of chronic disease prevention shouldseek to incorporate all the basic elements of a modern ecologicalapproach, including disease outcomes, health and risk behaviors,environmental factors, and health-related resources and deliverysystems. System dynamics shows promise as a means of modelingmultiple interacting diseases and risks, the interaction ofdelivery systems and diseased populations, and matters of nationaland state policy.
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