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This Article Figures Only Full Text Full Text (PDF) All Versions of this Article: AJPH.2005.063529v1 96/3/488    most recent Submit a response View Shopping Cart Alert me when this article is cited Alert me when eLetters are posted Alert me if a correction is posted Services Similar articles in this journal Similar articles in Web of Science Similar articles in PubMed Alert me to new issues of the journal Download to citation manager Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Citing Articles via Web of Science (6) Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by Jones, A. P. Articles by Seville, D. A. Search for Related Content PubMed PubMed Citation Articles by Jones, A. P. Articles by Seville, D. A. Related Collections Diabetes Other Chronic Disease Obesity, Overweight, Underweight Social Science Prevention

Andrew P. Jones, MS, Jack B. Homer, PhD, Dara L. Murphy, MPH, Joyce D. K. Essien, MD, MBA, Bobby Milstein, MPH and Donald A. Seville, MS

Dara L. Murphy is with the Division of Diabetes Translation, Joyce D. K. Essien is with the Division of Public Health Partnerships, and Bobby Milstein is with the Division of Adult and Community Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Ga. Joyce D. K. Essien is also with the Center for Public Health Practice at the Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta. Jack B. Homer is with Homer Consulting, Voorhees, NJ. Andrew P. Jones and Donald A. Seville are with the Sustainability Institute, Asheville, NC, and Hartland, VT, respectively.

Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to Dara L. Murphy or Kimbelian Barnes, Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Mail Stop K-10, 4770 Buford Hwy, Atlanta, GA 30341 (e-mail: dlm1{at}cdc.gov; kbarnes1{at}cdc.gov).

Health planners in the Division of Diabetes Translation and others from the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention used system dynamics simulation modeling to gain a better understanding of diabetes population dynamics and to explore implications for public health strategy. A model was developed to explain the growth of diabetes since 1980 and portray possible futures through 2050.

The model simulations suggest characteristic dynamics of the diabetes population, including unintended increases in diabetes prevalence due to diabetes control, the inability of diabetes control efforts alone to reduce diabetes-related deaths in the long term, and significant delays between primary prevention efforts and downstream improvements in diabetes outcomes.

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