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AJPH First Look, published online ahead of print Nov 13, 2008
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AJPH.2007.124768v1
99/1/65    most recent
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January 2009, Vol 99, No. 1 | American Journal of Public Health 65-67
© 2009 American Public Health Association
DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2007.124768


RESEARCH AND PRACTICE

Estimating the World Trade Center Tower Population on September 11, 2001: A Capture–Recapture Approach

Joe Murphy, MA

The author is with RTI International, Chicago, IL.

Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to Joe Murphy, MA, RTI International, 230 W Monroe St, Suite 2100, Chicago, IL 60606 (e-mail: jmurphy{at}rti.org).

I applied the capture–recapture method to estimate the World Trade Center tower population at the time of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Available lists helped identify 8965 survivors and 2152 confirmed casualties. The capture–recapture model suggested that an additional 4435 survivors were present, putting the total count of all present at 15 552 (95% confidence interval = 15 216, 15 897). An accurate estimate represents the potential number at risk for trauma as a result of direct exposure to the events of the day.







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