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This Article Figures Only Full Text Full Text (PDF) Supplemental Data All Versions of this Article: AJPH.2008.152595v1 99/12/2230    most recent Submit a response View Shopping Cart Alert me when this article is cited Alert me when eLetters are posted Alert me if a correction is posted Services Similar articles in this journal Similar articles in PubMed Alert me to new issues of the journal Download to citation manager Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Citing Articles via Web of Science (1) Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by Lightwood, J. Articles by Goldman, L. Search for Related Content PubMed PubMed Citation Articles by Lightwood, J. Articles by Goldman, L. Related Collections Diabetes Obesity, Overweight, Underweight Health Policy Prevention Cardiovascular Disease

James Lightwood, PhD, Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, PhD, MD, Pamela Coxson, PhD, Y. Claire Wang, MD, ScD, Lawrence Williams, MS and Lee Goldman, MD, MPH

At the time of the research, James Lightwood was with the School of Pharmacy and Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo and Pamela Coxson were with the Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco. Y. Claire Wang was with the Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY. Lawrence Williams was with Partners HealthCare, Boston, MA. Lee Goldman was with Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY, and with the Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, while working on the current version of the CHD Policy Model.

Correspondence: Correspondence should be sent to James Lightwood, PhD, Dept of Clinical Pharmacy, University of California, 3333 California St, Suite 420, San Francisco, CA 94118 (e-mail: lightwoodj{at}pharmacy.ucsf.edu). Reprints can be ordered at http://www.ajph.org by clicking the "Reprints/Eprints" link.

Objectives. We predicted the future economic burden attributable to high rates of current adolescent overweight.

Methods. We constructed models to simulate the costs of excess obesity and associated diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD) among adults aged 35–64 years in the US population in 2020 to 2050.

Results. Current adolescent overweight is projected to result in 161 million life-years complicated by obesity, diabetes, or CHD and 1.5 million life-years lost. The cumulative excess attributable total costs are estimated at $254 billion: $208 billion because of lost productivity from earlier death or morbidity and $46 billion from direct medical costs. Currently available therapies for hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes, used according to guidelines, if applied in the future, would result in modest reductions in excess mortality (decreased to 1.1 million life-years lost) but increase total excess costs by another $7 billion (increased to $261 billion total).

Conclusions. Current adolescent overweight will likely lead to large future economic and health burdens, especially lost productivity from premature death and disability. Application of currently available medical treatments will not greatly reduce these future burdens of increased adult obesity.

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