Childhood Vaccine Purchase Costs in the Public Sector: Past Trends, Future Expectations
Matthew M. Davis, MD, MAPP,
Jessica L. Zimmerman, BA,
John R. C. Wheeler, PhD and
Gary L. Freed, MD, MPH
All of the authors are with the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. Matthew M. Davis is with the Child Health Evaluation and Research (CHEAR) Unit, Division of General Pediatrics, and the Division of General Internal Medicine. Jessica L. Zimmerman is with the CHEAR Unit. John R. C. Wheeler is with the Department of Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health. Gary L. Freed is with the CHEAR Unit and the Department of Health Management and Policy.
FIGURE 2——Changes in cumulative costs per child of vaccine series attributable to changes in recommendations.
Note. DTaP = diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and acellular pertussis vaccine; DTP = diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and whole-cell pertussis vaccine; HBV = hepatitis B vaccine; Hib = Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine; IPV = inactivated poliovirus vaccine; MMR = measles-mumps-rubella vaccine; Var = varicella vaccine. Each bar represents attributable change in cost for the vaccines indicated. Bars of different shades distinguish costs for different vaccines in years in which more than 1 change in recommendations occurred. New combination vaccines are indicated with "/" in the vaccine name. All costs are in 2001 US dollars.
FIGURE 3——Three scenarios of estimated cumulative costs per child of recommended vaccine series, 2002–2020.
Note. All cost estimates are derived from the regression model of historical public-sector vaccine cost trends. Point estimates are shown for models of the introduction of 3 new noncombination vaccines in 2003, 2012, and 2018; 5 new noncombination vaccines in 2004, 2009, 2012, 2014, and 2018; and 7 new noncombination vaccines in 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2018, and 2020. Potential introduction of combination vaccines is not shown. All costs are in 2001 US dollars.
FIGURE 4——Comparison of cumulative vaccine purchase costs per child in 3 potential vaccine introduction scenarios, 2002–2020.
Note. Early scenario = 5 new vaccines by 2011 and 2 more vaccines by 2020; even scenario = a new vaccine every 2 to 3 years; late scenario = 2 new vaccines by 2011 and 1 more new vaccine every other year between 2011 and 2020. All scenarios reflect the introduction of 7 new noncombination vaccines by 2020, with costs derived from the regression model of historical public-sector vaccine cost trends. Combination vaccines are not shown. All costs are in 2001 US dollars.
