Projecting Heat-Related Mortality Impacts Under a Changing Climate in the New York City Region
Kim Knowlton, DrPH,
Barry Lynn, PhD,
Richard A. Goldberg, MS,
Cynthia Rosenzweig, PhD,
Christian Hogrefe, PhD,
Joyce Klein Rosenthal, MSUP, MPH and
Patrick L. Kinney, ScD
At the time the research was completed, Kim Knowlton and Patrick L. Kinney were with the Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY. Barry Lynn, Richard A. Goldberg, and Cynthia Rosenzweig were with the Center for Climate Systems Research, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University, New York. Christian Hogrefe was with the Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, Albany, NY. Joyce Klein Rosenthal was with the Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, and the Graduate School of Architecture, Planning and Preservation, Columbia University, New York.
FIGURE 1——A comparison of regional estimated 1990s summer heat-related deaths versus mortality projected for each future decade, including both A2 and B2 scenarios for 2050s, and both acclimatized and nonacclimatized approaches: New York City metropolitan region.
Note. A2 scenario assumed rapid human population growth, relatively weak environmental concerns, and a lack of aggressive greenhouse gas regulations. B2 scenario assumed more-moderate population growth and increased concerns about environmental sustainability, with more aggressive greenhouse gas regulations, compared with A2.
FIGURE 2——Map showing spatial variations in county-specific mean increases in heat-related premature mortality from the 1990s to the 2050s: New York City metropolitan region.
