© 2005 American Public Health Association DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2004.045799
Tim A. Bullman, Clare M. Mahan, and Han K. Kang are with the Veterans Health Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, Washington, DC. William F. Page is with the Medical Follow-up Agency, Institute of Medicine, Washington, DC. Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to Tim Bullman, Department of Veterans Affairs, Mail Stop 135, Environmental Epidemiology Service, 810 Vermont Ave, Washington, DC 20420 (e-mail: tim.bullman{at}hq.med.va.gov).
Objectives. We investigated whether US Army Gulf War veterans who were potentially exposed to nerve agents during the March 1991 weapons demolitions at Khamisiyah, Iraq, are at increased risk of cause-specific mortality. Methods. The cause-specific mortality of 100487 exposed US Army Gulf War veterans was compared with that of 224980 unexposed US Army Gulf War veterans. Exposure was determined with the Department of Defense 2000 plume model. Relative risk estimates were derived from Cox proportional hazards models. Results. The risks of most disease-related mortality were similar for exposed and unexposed veterans. However, exposed veterans had an increased risk of brain cancer deaths (relative risk [RR]=1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.12, 3.34). The risk of brain cancer death was larger among those exposed 2 or more days than those exposed 1 day when both were compared separately to all unexposed veterans (RR=3.26; 95% CI=1.33, 7.96; RR=1.72; 95% CI=0.95,3.10, respectively). Conclusions. Exposure to chemical munitions at Khamisiyah may be associated with an increased risk of brain cancer death. Additional research is required to confirm this finding.
On March 4 and 10, 1991, combat engineer and explosive ordnance disposal units of the US Army XVIII Corps destroyed 2 large Iraqi weapons caches at Khamisiyah, Iraq. In October 1991, March 1992, May 1992, and May 1998, representatives from the United Nations Special Commission inspected Khamisiyah and detected the existence of sarin and cyclosarin in both intact and damaged rockets in the bunker and pit. Military personnel who were possibly exposed to chemical warfare agents at Khamisiyah were identified by environmental and climatological modeling of the plume dispersion. Sarin is a toxic nerve agent produced for chemical warfare. Sarin can be inhaled or absorbed via the mucous membranes, skin, or eyes, and at sufficient dosage it can cause convulsions and death.1 Acute sarin exposure produces a well-characterized acute cholinergic reaction, and doses sufficient to produce an acute reaction have been associated with persistent health effects such as fatigue, vision problems, and headaches.1 There is no evidence that sarin is carcinogenic.2 Several studies have examined cause-specific mortality risks associated with Gulf War service by comparing the mortality of all Gulf War veterans to that of veterans who served in the military during the period of the Gulf War but did not serve in the Persian Gulf region.35 Although reporting that Gulf War veterans were at increased risk for traumatic deaths, the studies did not find any increased risk of disease-related deaths. One of these studies assessed cause-specific mortality among Gulf War veterans who were considered exposed to nerve gas on the basis of the 1997 plume model.4 When the mortality of 48281 Gulf War veterans who were exposed to nerve gas at Khamisiyah was compared with that of 573621 Gulf War veterans who were not exposed, there was no increased risk in either overall or cause-specific mortality among exposed veterans. Another study using the same exposure model found no unusual morbidity among exposed troops.6 To determine whether adverse health are outcomes associated with exposure to chemical agents released at Khamisiyah, we compared the mortality of all exposed US Army Gulf War veterans to that of unexposed US Army Gulf War veterans, using the 2000 plume model to assess potential for exposure.
Identification of Study Subjects The cohort for this study was selected in collaboration with the Office of the Special Assistant for Gulf War Illnesses, the Deployment Environmental Surveillance Program of the US Army Center for Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine, and the Environmental Epidemiology Service of the Department of Veterans Affairs.
We used the 2000 plume model to provide exposure status for 351121 army personnel deployed to the Persian Gulf during the Gulf War (August 1990 to March 1991). Of these veterans, 80 were determined to have died in the Gulf and were excluded from this analysis, leaving a total of 351041 (Figure 1
Exposure Determination The 1997 plume model, the first model used to determine the potential for exposure to agents released at Khamisiyah, was developed by a joint team of Department of Defense and Central Intelligence Agency personnel. This model is described in detail on a Department of Defense Web site7 and in a study assessing postwar morbidity of potentially exposed veterans.6 The 1997 plume model used data collected from those who were present at the Khamisiyah demolitions and from reconstructed demolitions. Dispersion models were used to predict the transport and spread of chemical warfare agents according to simulated meteorologic conditions. The result was the generation of a simulated potential hazard area that varied in size and shape from March 10 to March 13, 1991. In 2000, the Department of Defense and the Central Intelligence Agency developed the 2000 plume model, a refined version of their 1997 model. The 2000 plume model is described by the Department of Defense on its Gulf Warrelated Web site. Our study relied on the 2000 model to determine the likelihood of exposure. The 2000 plume model includes several improvements over the 1997 model. Among the improvements are revised meteorologic models, a reduced amount of nerve agent released, the addition of cyclosarin toxicity data, and the deposition and degradation data. Another improvement is more precise information regarding the location of individual units in Iraq at the time of the 1991 demolitions. In the 1997 model, an individuals location was largely determined by the location of that persons battalion, whereas, in the 2000 model, an individuals location was determined by the companys location. Because a battalion consists of 500 to 900 soldiers and a company consists of only 100 to 200 soldiers, locating individuals at the company level is believed to be more precise than locating them at the battalion level. Unit locations were based on 855 000 recorded daily unit locations in the Gulf Theater. The extent to which this represents all locations for military personnel during the war is unknown.
Vital Status Determination and Cause of Death Data
Military Service and Demographic Characteristics
Statistical Methods
We identified 1179 deaths among exposed veterans, 2696 deaths among unexposed veterans, and 341 deaths among those with missing exposure data (Figure 1
Table 2
The mortality of veterans exposed 1 day and that of veterans exposed 2 or more days was compared separately with the mortality of all unexposed veterans, with adjustment for age at entry to follow-up, gender, race, rank, and unit component (Table 3
We also compared the cause-specific mortality of all unexposed veterans, all exposed veterans, and exposed veterans when stratified by the number of days exposed (1 day or 2 or more days) with that of the US population, with adjustment for age, gender, race, and calendar year of death. The overall mortality for all 4 groups of veterans was less than half that expected as determined by the US population; the standardized mortality ratio for all exposed was 0.40 (95% CI = 0.38, 0.42); the mortality ratio for those exposed 1 day was 0.40 (95% CI = 0.38, 0.43); the mortality ratio for those exposed 2 or more days was 0.40 (95% CI = 0.34, 0.47); and the mortality ratio for all unexposed veterans was 0.42 (95% CI = 0.40, 0.43). When we looked at cause-specific mortality, the only excess we found in cause-specific deaths among all groups of exposed veterans was brain cancer deaths. The largest excess of brain cancer deaths among exposed veterans was among those veterans exposed 2 or more days (SMR = 2.13; 95% CI = 0.78, 4.63). Those veterans exposed 1 day also had an excess of brain cancer deaths, but it was not statistically significant (SMR = 1.05; 95% CI = 0.63, 1.64). All unexposed veterans had a standardized mortality ratio for brain cancer deaths of 0.71 (95% CI = 0.46, 1.04).
Exposure Misclassification
Finally, assigning 7% of veterans with missing exposure data to first exposed and then unexposed groups and recalculating relative risks of brain cancer (RR=1.70; 95% CI=1.00, 2.90; and RR=1.97; 95% CI=1.16, 3.36, respectively) did not produce relative risks dissimilar to that reported in Table 2
Smoke Exposure
Diagnostic Misclassification
Latency Analysis
We compared the overall and cause-specific mortality of US Army Gulf War veterans potentially exposed to low-level chemical agents at Khamisiyah to that of US Army Gulf War veterans not exposed to chemical agents. When the mortality of all exposed veterans was compared with that of all unexposed veterans, with adjustment for covariates, there were no statistically significant differences between exposed and unexposed veterans except for an increased risk of brain cancer deaths among exposed veterans (RR=1.94; 95% CI=1.12, 3.34). Veterans exposed 2 or more days had a larger relative risk of brain cancer deaths (RR=3.26; 95% CI=1.33, 7.96) than veterans exposed only 1 day (RR= 1.72; 95% CI=0.95, 3.10) when both were compared with unexposed veterans. When we looked at the possibility of exposure misclassification, we found that 3 or more brain cancer deaths in exposed veterans would have to be reclassified as deaths in unexposed veterans to materially affect our results. Changing 3 of the 6 brain cancer deaths in exposed veterans from deaths in veterans exposed 2 or more days to deaths in veterans exposed 1 day did not alter the conclusion of the analysis of the length of exposure and risk of brain cancer death. Adding subjects with missing exposure data to either the exposed or unexposed cohort also did not materially change the results. Finally, adding data indicating exposure to smoke from oil well fires did not alter the original findings. Other potentially harmful exposures were present in the Gulf, but any of these exposures should be nondifferential regarding exposure as determined by the 2000 exposure model. As neither sarin nor cyclosarin are known carcinogens, it is possible that the demolitions at Khamisiyah may have involved additional agents or chemicals that were related to the increased risk of brain cancer death. The lack of data on pre- or post-Khamisiyah environmental or occupational exposures is also a shortcoming. When we examined the possibility of diagnostic misclassification, we found that limiting analysis to the 44 confirmed gliomas did not materially change the results.
When we looked at typical risk factors for brain cancer, we found that a Poisson regression model for brain cancer found the same risk factorsincreased age, male gender, higher social class (here military rank)that have been found in other studies,15 except that there were no differences by race. Because there were no female brain cancer deaths, separate analyses could not be done by gender; however, Cox models such as those used in Table 2 Despite the apparent robustness of this studys finding of an association between brain cancer death and possible exposure to chemical warfare agents, a certain measure of caution is needed in its interpretation. First, until quite recently there has been little evidence suggesting that subacute exposure to chemical warfare agents could cause any health effects at all.2 However, recent animal studies reported alterations in the brain that could lead to memory loss and cognitive dysfunction20 and sarin-induced immunosuppression.21 The short latency period suggested by this study is contrary to the reported latency period of tumors. The brain tumors from this study would at most have a latency period of 10 years if they were related to some exposure at Khamisiyah. Research on brain cancers associated with occupational exposure, specifically exposure to radiofrequency fields from cell phones, report a latency period of 10 to 20 years.22 The same latency period characterizes most other cancers. However, a recent study of brain tumors among a group of young military radar operators reported a latency period of less than 10 years.23 Cancers such as leukemia and multiple myeloma have reported latency periods of 2 to 3.5 years between exposure and death.24 We found an approximately twofold excess of brain cancer deaths, 12 to 13 excess deaths in a population of 100000 veterans, associated with possible exposure to chemical warfare agents. This finding was adjusted for the effects of age, race, gender, rank, and unit component and was robust to the potential effects of exposure and diagnostic misclassification, as well as latency; the addition of data on exposure to smoke from oil well fires also had no material effect on this result. Moreover, although the data were very sparse, risk increased monotonically with the number of days of possible exposure. Although considerable caution is warranted in the interpretation of this finding, we suggest that further follow-up of this and other possibly exposed military cohorts be undertaken.
This study was funded by the US Army (grant DAMD17-98-1-8274). The authors acknowledge the valuable help of members of the expert panel constituted to advise us on the conduct of the study: Barbara S. Hulka (chair), University of North Carolina; Dan G. Blazer, Duke University; Evelyn J. Bromet, SUNY Stony Brook; Germaine Buck, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; Daniel H. Freeman Jr, University of Texas Medical Branch; Richard T. Johnson, MD, Johns Hopkins University; and Peter S.J. Lees, Johns Hopkins University. The authors acknowledge Michael E. Kilpatrick and the staff of the Deployment Health Support Directorate, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs, for providing the Khamisiyah hazard area exposure data and for useful discussions and Jack M. Heller of the US Army Center for Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, for providing the data on smoke exposure and for useful discussions.
Human Participant Protection
Peer Reviewed Note. The opinions and assertions contained herein are those of the authors and are not to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views or positions of the National Academy of Sciences, the Institute of Medicine, the National Research Council, or the Department of Veterans Affairs.
Contributors Accepted for publication November 1, 2004.
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