© 2007 American Public Health Association DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2005.084848
Steven H. Woolf is with the Departments of Family Medicine, Epidemiology, and Community Health, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond. Robert E. Johnson is with the Departments of Biostatistics and Family Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond. Robert L. Phillips, Jr, is with the Robert Graham Center of the American Academy of Family Physicians, Washington, DC. Maike Philipsen is with the Department of Foundations of Education, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond. Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to Steven H. Woolf, MD, MPH, Department of Family Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, 1200 E Broad St, PO Box 980251, Richmond, VA 23298-0251 (e-mail: swoolf{at}vcu.edu).
Objectives. Social determinants of health, such as inadequate education, contribute greatly to mortality rates. We examined whether correcting the social conditions that account for excess deaths among individuals with inadequate education might save more lives than medical advances (e.g., new drugs and devices). Methods. Using US vital statistics data for 1996 through 2002, we applied indirect standardization techniques to estimate the maximum number of averted deaths attributable to medical advances and the number of deaths that would have been averted if mortality rates among adults with lesser education had been the same as those among college-educated adults. Results. Medical advances averted a maximum of 178193 deaths during the study period. Correcting disparities in education-associated mortality rates would have saved 1369335 lives during the same period, a ratio of 8:1. Conclusions. Higher mortality rates among individuals with inadequate education reflect a complex causal pathway and the influence of confounding variables. Formidable efforts at social change would be necessary to eliminate disparities, but the changes would save more lives than would societys current heavy investment in medical advances. Spending large sums of money on such advances at the expense of social change may be jeopardizing public health.
The past centurys progress in medicine and public health has reduced morbidity and lengthened life expectancy, but the pace of progress has been modest. For more than 100 years, the national death rate has declined at a rate that has remained remarkably constant (1% per year), with the exception of the conspicuous spike during the 1917–1918 influenza pandemic (Figure 1
In the past few decades there have been heavy investments in technological advances. Both industry and government have spent billions of dollars per year on the development of new drugs and devices. The failure of these efforts to enhance the rate of decline in mortality rates, however, raises questions about the prudence of carrying this investment priority into the new century. A potentially more effective alternative might be to continue technological advancements but to invest more substantively in areas outside of medical innovation that can do more to avert deaths and enhance health. We demonstrated in a previous analysis that equity of mortality rates among African Americans and Whites would have resulted in 5 times as many lives being saved during 1991 through 2000 as those saved by medical advances.1 Minority groups have higher mortality rates for multiple reasons, notably adverse social conditions such as inadequate access to health care, educational disparities, and poverty.2–4 People of low socioeconomic status have higher mortality rates and poorer health status than does the general population.5,6 Addressing these social determinants of health might do more to save lives than the incremental advancements in the technology of care that consume the bulk of societal investments in health.6,7 We explored this possibility by examining death rates among adults with inadequate education, a group known to have excess mortality rates. Mortality rates among adults with a high school education and those with less than a high school education (inadequate education) are 2.3 and 2.7 times higher, respectively, than rates among those with at least some college education.8 Education empowers individuals with knowledge to make better personal health choices and with higher earnings to obtain access to quality health care. The link between education and mortality is confounded by its association with other factors that also affect health outcomes (e.g., early life experiences, race and ethnicity, community and environmental conditions). We used education-associated excess mortality as a proxy for this web of sociological, economic, and biological variables. We recognize that this excess mortality will not be fully eliminated by education alone but rather by ameliorating the combination of related sociological factors, education among them, that account for the health of the educated. Our aim was to quantify the potential benefit from such an enterprise and to contrast it with the lives saved by our current investment in medical advances.
We examined mortality data for 1996 through 2002 reported by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). We compared (1) the maximum number of deaths averted by the downward secular trend in mortality (Figure 1
Deaths Averted by Medical Advances We calculated averted deaths using indirect standardization of mortality rates to determine expected numbers of deaths (see the online supplement to this article). We multiplied the resident population of the United States by the difference between the crude mortality rate of the calendar year in question and a recalculated mortality rate reflecting no improvement in rates. We derived the latter for each calendar year by multiplying the age-specific population counts by the age-specific mortality rates for the corresponding age groups in the previous year, summing the age-specific deaths, and dividing by the total population. We summed the results for 1996 through 2002 to arrive at the cumulative number of averted deaths.
Deaths Averted by Education-Related Excess in Mortality We applied indirect standardization of mortality rates (see the online supplement to this article) for 2 populations of adults with inadequate education: (1) adults aged 18 to 64 years with less than 12 years of education and (2) adults aged 18 to 64 years who had completed 12 years of education but less than 1 year of college. The 2 populations of adults with an inadequate education and those with a college education formed a trichotomy, with each corresponding to a different model analyzed according to the recommendations of Backlund et al.11 For each population of adults with an inadequate education, we calculated the number of avertable deaths by calendar year and by gender, multiplying the age-specific population of adults with an inadequate education (derived from annual US Census Bureau reports) by the mortality rate reported by NCHS for college-educated adults in the corresponding age groups. To arrive at a gender-specific mortality rate, we divided the total number of calculated deaths, summed across the age groups, by the population with an inadequate education of that gender. We subtracted this hypothetical crude mortality rate (an approximation of what would have occurred if age-specific death rates among adults with an inadequate education had equaled those among college-educated adults) from the actual crude mortality rate among adults with an inadequate education and multiplied it by the total population with an inadequate education to estimate the number of avertable deaths among adults with an inadequate education for the calendar year in question. We summed the results for 1996 through 2002 to approximate the cumulative number of avertable deaths.
Deaths Averted by Medical Advances The downward secular trend in age-adjusted mortality rates in the United States saved an average of 25 456 lives per year during 1996 through 2002 (Figure 2
Deaths Averted by Correcting Education-Associated Excess Mortality Each year, an average of 195 619 deaths would have been averted if mortality rates among adults with an inadequate education had been the same as mortality rates among college-educated adults (Figure 2 Disparities in education-associated excess mortality were more acute among those with less than a high school education than among those with a high school education (but no college education). Nonetheless, because high school graduates outnumber adults with less than a high school education,12 a majority of the lives saved by eliminating education-associated excess mortality—870286 (63.6%) of the 1369335 averted deaths—would involve adults with a high school diploma.
Education in Context It makes sense that better education would enhance health outcomes. An educated populace is better positioned to access information and understand the implications of lifestyle (e.g., smoking, physical inactivity) and health care options, to make choices that optimize individual health as well as that of ones children, and to navigate the health care system and manage their illnesses. Educated individuals have better jobs that provide the resources for health insurance coverage, access to care, and out-of-pocket expenses and the means to climb out of social conditions and neighborhoods that compromise health (e.g., poor housing, pollution, crime). Educational attainment also helps the economy by offsetting health care needs and improving earnings.13–15 The international development community has long focused on education as a strategy to raise a countrys health status and wealth.16,17 The causal pathway linking education to mortality is complex.18 Income represents an important confounding variable.18,19 Lahelma et al.20 estimated, on the basis of Finnish data, that at least one third of education-related health inequalities are mediated by occupational class and income. Some contend that class and poverty account almost fully for the higher mortality rates associated with limited education21 and that improved education will not correct social class differences.22 Conversely, data from Kansas show a conspicuous dose–response relationship in terms of the influence of gaps in education on mortality and self-reported health status independent of income and other variables.6 Income is both a consequence and a mediator of education, as in the case of affluent applicants having better prospects for college admission. Influences other than income are also cofactors (mediators) on the causal pathway linking education and mortality.23 Researchers are only beginning to disentangle the interrelated role of individual characteristics such as social class, risk factors, early life experiences,24,25 accumulated disadvantage, stress, and shame. Race, ethnicity, and other factors that contribute to health disparities26 also contribute to gaps in educational attainment. Although individuals with inadequate education are more likely to engage in unhealthy behaviors,27,28 the literature is divided regarding how substantively these risk factors contribute to health inequalities.29–32 Regardless of their education or income, individuals may experience inferior health because of environmental conditions that a diploma cannot remedy. Neighborhood effects33,34 and factors associated with the larger social environment35 contribute to adverse health outcomes independently of ones educational status.36 Some studies suggest that income inequality and relative deprivation adversely affect health even after adjustment for individual income.37–41 Others indicate that the association has less to do with income inequality than with race and other confounders or with neomaterial conditions (e.g., under-investment in social infrastructure) and macro-level social and economic policies with which income inequality is associated.42–48 It seems likely, therefore, that the amelioration of education-associated excess mortality requires more extensive social change than simply ensuring that all adults complete college or even eliminating educational disparities. The latter would certainly improve population health, but at present there is not a sufficient understanding of the complex causal pathway that links education to health outcomes to quantify how much health would be improved. Clearer insight into these interrelationships is necessary to make rational choices on how to correct the problem.
Challenges and Opportunities These challenges should not dissuade policymakers from tackling the conditions that cause education-associated excess mortality any more than the obstacles to curing cancer have impeded long-standing investments in that endeavor. Decisions about how much to invest in solving health problems should be driven by the degree to which society will benefit. In comparison with the gain from medical advances, we found that 8 times as many deaths would be averted if mortality rates among adults with an inadequate education were the same as those among individuals at higher education levels. This contrast is not drawn to promote 1 enterprise over another but rather to assess how much priority each should receive. On the basis of how many lives can be saved, our data suggest that efforts to correct the social conditions causing education-associated excess mortality should be proportionately greater than societys investment in medical advances. Todays leaders embrace opposite priorities, however. Indeed, budget pressures from escalating health care costs and medical research have led the government to reduce support for social services, including education, thereby choking off an upstream strategy that could reduce the demand for health care.52 Medicaid is outpacing education as the largest state budget item,53 and the federal government has instituted cuts in Head Start and other programs that have strong associations with educational achievement.54 Striking the proper balance—funding the health sector in ways that safeguard progress toward universal education—may do more to improve the health of the population than concentrated spending on health care.22,52 Given that education is more likely to be embraced by the American citizenry than universal health care, resolving educational disparities may represent the most viable option for change among the major social determinants of health. The public appears to have turned away from social welfare and to be more tolerant of income disparities. As noted by Emanuel, "The one issue of social justice that inflames Americans is education. And this is not because it will lead to better health outcomes but to economic advancement."52(p59) Education enjoys more support as a universal right and is viewed as a more worthy public investment than other social change initiatives such as the alleviation of poverty or even universal health insurance coverage.
Limitations Third, in our calculations we applied the benefits of medical advances to all age groups, but we examined the benefits of correcting education-associated excess mortality only for adults aged 25 to 64 years (the population for whom relevant data were available). This inconsistency understated the ratio of lives saved by correcting education-associated excess mortality. Moreover, the causes of death in this age group differ; for example, injuries (accidents, homicide, and suicide) account for 3% of deaths among adults 65 years or older but 12% of deaths among adults 25 to 64 years of age.55 Fourth, our calculations assumed the sudden disappearance of disparities; more realistically, death rates among adults with an inadequate education would diminish gradually over time before achieving equity with rates among college graduates. Fifth, we treated medical advances and the elimination of education-associated excess mortality as mutually exclusive enterprises, when in fact one can enhance the other. The source data underlying our calculations carried their own limitations. For example, mortality rates specific to different levels of educational attainment are affected by the quality of education data reported on death certificates and in census surveys. Decedents who did not graduate from high school are often misclassified as high school graduates on death certificates, inflating death rates among high school graduates and understating death rates among those with less education.9,10 Educational attainment data are absent from 3% to 9% of death certificates, also causing understated death rates.8
Conclusions
We thank the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on previous versions of this article. When this analysis was first originated, staff of the National Center for Health Statistics offered valuable guidance regarding available data sources.
Human Participant Protection
Peer Reviewed
Contributors Accepted for publication April 22, 2006.
1. Woolf SH, Johnson RE, Fryer GE Jr, Rust G, Satcher D. The health impact of resolving racial disparities: an analysis of US mortality data. Am J Public Health. 2004;94:2078–2081. 2. Marmot MG, Wilkinson RG, eds. Social Determinants of Health. Oxford, England: Oxford University Press; 1999. 3. Daniels N, Kennedy B, Kawachi I, Cohen J, Rogers J, eds. Is Inequality Bad for Our Health? Boston, Mass: Beacon Press; 2000. 4. Marmot MG, Davey Smith G, Stansfeld SA, et al. Health inequalities among British civil servants: the Whitehall II study. Lancet. 1991;337:1387–1393.[CrossRef][Web of Science][Medline] 5. Kennedy BP, Kawachi I, Glass R, Prothrow-Stith D. Income distribution, socioeconomic status, and self rated health in the United States: multilevel analysis. BMJ. 1998;317:917–921. 6. Singh GK. Socioeconomic and behavioral differences in health, morbidity, and mortality in Kansas: empirical data, models, and analysis. In: Tarlov AR, St. Peter RF, eds. The Society and Population Health Reader: Volume 2. A State and Community Perspective. New York, NY: New Press; 2000:15–56. 7. Moses H III, Dorsey ER, Matheson DH, Thier SO. Financial anatomy of biomedical research. JAMA. 2005;294:1333–1342. 8. Health, United States, 2004. Hyattsville, Md: National Center for Health Statistics; 2004. 9. Sorlie PD, Johnson NJ. Validity of education information on the death certificate. Epidemiology. 1996;7: 437–439.[Web of Science][Medline] 10. Makuc DM, Feldman JJ, Mussolino ME. Validity of education and age as reported on death certificates. In: 1996 Proceedings of the American Statistical Association Social Statistics Section. Alexandria, Va: American Statistical Association; 1997:102–106. 11. Backlund E, Sorlie PD, Johnson NJ. A comparison of the relationships of education and income with mortality: the National Longitudinal Mortality Study. Soc Sci Med. 1999;49:1373–1384.[CrossRef][Web of Science][Medline] 12. US Census Bureau. Table 1: Educational attainment of the population 15 years and over, by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin: March 2002. Available at: http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/education/ppl-169/tab01.pdf. Accessed October 20, 2005. 13. Muennig P, Fahs M. The cost-effectiveness of public postsecondary education subsidies. Prev Med. 2001; 32:156–162.[CrossRef][Web of Science][Medline] 14. Muenning P. Health returns to education interventions. Available at: http://www.tc.edu/symposium. Accessed December 30, 2006. 15. Rouse CE. The labor market consequences of an inadequate education. Available at: http://www.tc.edu/symposium. Accessed December 30, 2006. 16. United Nations. United Nations Millennium Declaration. Available at: http://www.un.org/millennium/. Accessed October 21, 2005. 17. Curtin TR, Nelson EA. Economic and health efficiency of education funding policy. Soc Sci Med. 1999; 48:1599–1611.[CrossRef][Web of Science][Medline] 18. Goldman N. Social inequalities in health: disentangling the underlying mechanisms. Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2001;954:118–139.[Web of Science][Medline] 19. Schnittker J. Education and the changing shape of the income gradient in health. J Health Soc Behav. 2004;45:286–305.[Web of Science][Medline] 20. Lahelma E, Martikainen P, Laaksonen M, Aittomaki A. Pathways between socioeconomic determinants of health. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2004; 58:327–332. 21. Davey Smith G, Hart C, Hole D, et al. Education and occupational social class: which is the more important indicator of mortality risk? J Epidemiol Community Health. 1998;52:153–160.[Abstract] 22. Marmot M. Do inequalities matter? In: Daniels N, Kennedy B, Kawachi I, Cohen J, Rogers J, eds. Is Inequality Bad for Our Health? Boston, Mass: Beacon Press; 2000:37. 23. Martikainen P, Makela P, Koskinen S, Valkonen T. Income differences in mortality: a register-based follow-up study of three million men and women. Int J Epidemiol. 2001;30:1397–1405. 24. Brunner E, Shipley MJ, Blane D, Smith GD, Marmot MG. When does cardiovascular risk start? Past and present socioeconomic circumstances and risk factors in adulthood. J Epidemiol Community Health. 1999;53: 757–764.[Abstract] 25. Galobardes B, Lynch JW, Davey Smith G. Childhood socioeconomic circumstances and cause-specific mortality in adulthood: systematic review and interpretation. Epidemiol Rev. 2004;26:7–21. 26. Smedley BD, Stith AY, Nelson AR, eds. Unequal Treatment: Confronting Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Health Care. Washington, DC: National Academy Press; 2003. 27. Lynch JW, Kaplan GA, Salonen JT. Why do poor people behave poorly? Variation in adult health behaviours and psychosocial characteristics by stages of the socioeconomic lifecourse. Soc Sci Med. 1997;44:809–819.[CrossRef][Web of Science][Medline] 28. Droomers M, Schrijvers CT, Mackenbach JP. Educational level and decreases in leisure time physical activity: predictors from the longitudinal GLOBE study. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2001;55:562–568. 29. Pekkanen J, Tuomilehto J, Uutela A, Vartiainen E, Nissinen A. Social class, health behaviour, and mortality among men and women in eastern Finland. BMJ. 1995;311:589–593. 30. Kilander L, Berglund L, Boberg M, Vessby B, Lithell H. Education, lifestyle factors and mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer: a 25-year follow-up of Swedish 50-year-old men. Int J Epidemiol. 2001;30:1119–1126. 31. Lantz PM, House JS, Lepkowski JM, Williams DR, Mero RP, Chen J. Socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and mortality: results from a nationally representative prospective study of US adults. JAMA. 1998;279: 1703–1708. 32. Lantz PM, Lynch JW, House JS, et al. Socioeconomic disparities in health change in a longitudinal study of US adults: the role of health-risk behaviors. Soc Sci Med. 2001;53:29–40.[CrossRef][Web of Science][Medline] 33. Mackenbach JP, Kunst AE, Cavelaars AE, Groenhof F, Geurts JJ. Socioeconomic inequalities in morbidity and mortality in western Europe. Lancet. 1997;349: 1655–1659.[CrossRef][Web of Science][Medline] 34. Diez Roux AV, Merkin SS, Arnett D, et al. Neighborhood of residence and incidence of coronary heart disease. N Engl J Med. 2001;345:99–106. 35. Kaplan GA. What is the role of the social environment in understanding inequalities in health? Ann N Y Acad Sci. 1999;896:116–119.[CrossRef][Web of Science][Medline] 36. Bosma H, van de Mheen HD, Borsboom GJ, Mackenbach JP. Neighborhood socioeconomic status and all-cause mortality. Am J Epidemiol. 2001;153:363–371. 37. Wilkinson RG. Income distribution and life expectancy. BMJ. 1992;304:165–168. 38. Kaplan GA, Pamuk ER, Lynch JW, Cohen RD, Balfour JL. Inequality in income and mortality in the United States: analysis of mortality and potential pathways. BMJ. 1996;312:999–1003. 39. Stronks K, van de Mheen HD, Mackenbach JP. A higher prevalence of health problems in low income groups: does it reflect relative deprivation? J Epidemiol Community Health. 1998;52:548–557.[Abstract] 40. Lynch JW, Kaplan GA, Pamuk ER, et al. Income inequality and mortality in metropolitan areas of the United States. Am J Public Health. 1998;88:1074–1080. 41. Marmot MG. Status syndrome: a challenge to medicine. JAMA. 2006;295:1304–1307. 42. Lynch J, Davey Smith G, Hillemeier M, Shaw M, Raghunathan T, Kaplan G. Income inequality, the psychosocial environment, and health: comparisons of wealthy nations. Lancet. 2001;358:194–200.[CrossRef][Web of Science][Medline] 43. Deaton A, Lubotsky D. Mortality, inequality and race in American cities and states. Soc Sci Med. 2003; 56:1139–1153.[CrossRef][Web of Science][Medline] 44. Muller A. Education, income inequality, and mortality: a multiple regression analysis. BMJ. 2002;324:23–25. 45. Diener E, Diener M, Diener C. Factors predicting the subjective well-being of nations. J Pers Soc Psychol. 1995;69:851–864.[CrossRef][Web of Science][Medline] 46. Pearce N, Davey Smith G. Is social capital the key to inequalities in health? Am J Public Health. 2003;93: 122–129. 47. Lynch J, Harper S, Kaplan GA, Davey Smith G. Associations between income inequality and mortality among US states: the importance of time period and source of income data. Am J Public Health. 2005;95: 1424–1430. 48. Lynch JW, Smith GD, Kaplan GA, House JS. Income inequality and mortality: importance to health of individual income, psychosocial environment, or material conditions. BMJ. 2000;320:1200–1204. 49. Kozol J. The Shame of the Nation: The Restoration of Apartheid Schooling in America. New York, NY: Crown Publishing Group; 2005. 50. Carey C. The Funding Gap 2004: Many States Still Shortchange Minority and Low-Income Students. Washington, DC: Education Trust; 2004. 51. Peterson PE, West MR, eds. No Child Left Behind?: The Politics and Practice of School Accountability. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution; 2003. 52. Emanuel E. Political problems. In: Daniels N, Kennedy B, Kawachi I, Cohen J, Rogers J, eds. Is Inequality Bad for Our Health? Boston, Mass: Beacon Press; 2000:59. 53. National Association of State Budget Officers. 2004 state expenditure report. Available at: http://www.nasbo.org/Publications/PDFs/2004Expen-dReport.pdf. Accessed April 19, 2006. 54. National Head Start Association. Special report: funding and enrollment cuts in fiscal year 2006. Available at: http://www.nhsa.org/download/research/FY2006_Budget_Cuts.pdf. Accessed October 21, 2005. 55. Kochanek KD, Murphy SL, Anderson RN, Scott C. Deaths: final data for 2002. Natl Vital Stat Rep. October 12, 2004;53(5). This article has been cited by other articles:
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||