Impact of Tobacco Control Policies and Mass Media Campaigns on Monthly Adult Smoking Prevalence
Melanie A. Wakefield, PhD,
Sarah Durkin, PhD,
Matthew J. Spittal, PhD,
Mohammad Siahpush, PhD,
Michelle Scollo, Dip. Comm Health,
Julie A. Simpson, PhD,
Simon Chapman, PhD,
Victoria White, PhD and
David Hill, PhD
Melanie A. Wakefield, Sarah Durkin, Matthew J. Spittal, Victoria White, and David Hill are with the Centre for Behavioral Research in Cancer, The Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Australia. Mohammad Siahpush is with the Department of Health Promotion, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha. Michelle Scollo is with the Tobacco Control Unit, The Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne. Julie A. Simpson is with the Centre for Molecular, Environmental, Genetic and Analytic Epidemiology, School of Population Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne. Simon Chapman is with the School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Correspondence: Requests for reprints should be sent to Melanie A. Wakefield, PhD, Centre for Behavioral Research in Cancer, The Cancer Council Victoria, 1 Rathdowne Street, Carlton, Victoria 3053, Australia (e-mail: melanie.wakefield{at}cancervic.org.au).
ABSTRACT
Objectives. We sought to assess the impact of several tobaccocontrol policies and televised antismoking advertising on adultsmoking prevalence.
Methods. We used a population survey in which smoking prevalencewas measured each month from 1995 through 2006. Time-seriesanalysis assessed the effect on smoking prevalence of televisedantismoking advertising (with gross audience rating points [GRPs]per month), cigarette costliness, monthly sales of nicotinereplacement therapy (NRT) and bupropion, and smoke-free restaurantlaws.
Results. Increases in cigarette costliness and exposure to tobaccocontrol media campaigns significantly reduced smoking prevalence.We found a 0.3-percentage-point reduction in smoking prevalenceby either exposing the population to televised antismoking adsan average of almost 4 times per month (390 GRPs) or by increasingthe costliness of a pack of cigarettes by 0.03% of gross averageweekly earnings. Monthly sales of NRT and bupropion, exposureto NRT advertising, and smoke-free restaurant laws had no detectableimpact on smoking prevalence.
Conclusions. Increases in the real price of cigarettes and tobaccocontrol mass media campaigns broadcast at sufficient exposurelevels and at regular intervals are critical for reducing populationsmoking prevalence.
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