RESEARCH AND PRACTICE:
June M. Tester, George W. Rutherford, Zachary Wald, and Mary W. Rutherford
A Matched CaseControl Study Evaluating the Effectiveness of Speed Humps in Reducing Child Pedestrian Injuries
Am J Public Health 2004; 94: 646-650
[Abstract][Full text][PDF]
There are a number of problems associated with this study. First,
the control group of 100 out of over two hundred children brought to an
emergency room for injuries was selected by the authors themselves,
rather than on a double blind basis, where the selectors would be
independent of the study. Second, it is not stated whether the authors
made an attempt to determine if any of the children reportedly injured by
cars lived on the 80 streets that had humps built on Oakland streets the
two years prior to the 1995 to 2000 data of speed hump locations used by
the researchers. Third, even simple percentage calculations of the data
seem to be incorrect. There were 100 case patients and 200 controls. Of
the tiny sample size of 14 neighborhood injuries, 14 of 100 is stated to
be 14%. Six index street injuries should then mean 6 percent. However
Table 2 says 6 injuries are 12%. With 200 controls, 46 neighborhood cases
equal 23%, but 24 index street cases should be 12%, not 24% as stated.
The researchers conclude that speed humps were associated with a 53
percent to 60 percent reduction in the odds of injury or death among
children struck by an automobile. However, within a 95 percent confidence
interval the odds of an injury on a street without speed humps is found to
range from 24 to 95 percent, while the odds on a street with humps has a
range of 15 to 106 percent. This is a huge overlap. In fact, it is a 100
percent overlap, meaning that there is no statistical significance to the
results.
The researchers’ inability to calculate simple percentages seems to
explain their failure to recognize the statistical insignificance of their
results.
Kathleen Calongne
Evaluating speed humps is not that simple
6 July 2004
Deborah J Hogan, traffic safety coordinator City of Bend
As much as we would all like to believe that a simple and inexpensive
device like a speed hump can reduce pedestrian injury, it just doesn't
work that way. While it is true that most children under the age of ten
are injured in their neighborhoods, and dart-out crashes describe the most
common pedestrian injury, does the speed hump provide overall improved
safety for the children in the community? A 15 cm speed hump will cause
most vehicles to slow to 15 mph or less, lower than the speed limit for
residential streets and probably a speed drivers perceive as inconvenient.
So the hump of that height does a couple of things: It diverts traffic to
other neighbhorhood streets or collectors that do not have speed humps and
it creates a barrier for ambulances and fire engines that will not cross a
bump that high. If designated emergency service routes are in place, the
second issue can somewhat be addressed, but the traffic diversion effect
is unavoidable. If that is the goal, we can dead end all the residential
streets and not allow through traffic at all. It is not enough to look at
whether safety was improved on the streets where the speed humps were
installed, in order to evaluate whether safety was improved, one must
evaluate the overall safety benefit to the transportation system. If by
installing speed humps on streets A, B, and C we pushed more traffic on to
street D, I would expect a higher number of accidents on street D. This
would be particularly true of an increase in Dart Out type pedestrian
accidents, because the greater the traffic volume, the more likely this
type of crash is.
We at the City of Bend are very interested in improving safety for
pedestrians, children in particular. In order to accurately assess what
results in fewer pedestrian injuries, more factors need to be included in
the research such as traffic volume, sight distance, availability of
alternate routes, presence of sidewalks and on-street parking, etc. This
is not a simple analysis. To draw such a conclusion based on incomplete
research distracts the public from the truth and focuses "safety" efforts
on a quick fix that may not be a fix at all. I know this because when the
public calls us with their safety requests, they very often are convinced
that a speed hump is the solution, even before the problem has been
identified. Then I have to reeducate before I can even begin to address
the safety issues.
I wholeheartedly agree with the main result of your paper regarding
speed humps and child-pedestrian safety.
But how exactly does pedestrian safety have to do with "ethnicity" ?
Of all the hocus pocus that must be the most ridiculous, in my experience
as a traffic engineer.